For any prospect of peace to come in Oromia, one may need to consider the following 3 stages test:
STEP 1: Is Abiy Ahmed/Biltsigina still ruling over the country? If YES, then prospect of peace may almost be null and void because the every essence of Abiy’s political survival is designed on manufacturing conflicts. Peace and Biltsigina seem mutually exclusive!
If Biltsigina still grips right to power, then try the second test!
STEP 2: Is there a temporary political transition [with international oversight] which facilitates for both armed and non-armed political groups to sit at a table in order to bargain peace and design a NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT for the TRANSITION AND POST-TRANSITION POLITICAL MODEL that’s fairly and reasonably acceptable to Oromia?
If YES, then there is a prospect of peace! If NO, apply a third test!
If Abiy Ahmed/Biltsigina can’t be arrested or disabled including by all means necessary for the sake of a greater Oromo peace, then what?
STEP 3: If Abiy Ahmed is not removed and continues to wreck havoc in Oromia, then Oromo political powers (armed and non-armed) should jointly or severally continue to build their capacity and outgun Abiy Ahmed and his atrocious regime with a goal of establishing a de facto semi-autonomous regional political system with the ultimate goal of maintaining true peace and security.
This third stage entails leaving Abiy Ahmed regime alone and allowing him to continue as a nominal political entity at the central government level with no effective control over most of Oromia.
However, the following may plausibly happen under this third test:
A. Abiy/Biltsigina will remain confined to 4-kilo palace, which means he won’t have total of effective control over Oromia.
B. His military power may need to be weakened or significantly disabled that he can’t govern beyond 4-kilo. This means, Abiy and Biltsigina will remain a nominal regime with limited political jurisdiction until a certain time such that a full political freedom and true peace takes ground in the nation.
Who are the actors in Oromia?
1. Oromo Liberation Army
2. Oromo Liberation Front
3. Oromo Federalist Congress
4. Biltsigina Branch in Oromia
What are the threshold?
1. All of these actors need to come with a duty to bargain in good faith (I.e, for sustainable peace)
2. All of the actors should understand, represent and warrant that they are no more or less important than the other. That means, one actor can’t use the other as leverage to dominate each other throughout the process
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