Based on the past history of the two elections, one can tell a lot of hardships, the ruling party may face in the 2015 election. Most of the comforts of TPLF have gone since the time of the last election. It seems there will not be easy winning anymore. It is already known that the Ethiopian government is completely dictatorial. So defeating TPLF on its fake election is unthinkable. Because, we can forecast the result of the 2015 election based on those past cheated elections. The ruling party took everything with its own power and called it democratic election. Even though this dictatorial government is going to make a fake election again in 2015, the comfort conditions of the past election have erroded to some extent, which makes it difficult for the TPLF to call it democratic. We can list a lot of hardships the TPLF may face during election 2015.
During the election 2005 more than 200 anti-government protesters were gun-downed by the ruling party. The government cheated on many election sites and got 307 seats of the 547 seats in the parliament. During election 2010 there were only one opposition party and the government claimed a 99.6% winning result, which is non-existent figure in the real democracy. Even the so-called democratic western countries claim winning result around 50- 60%.
The Ethiopian government claimed such non-existent victory confidentially because of many factors. The western media propaganda about the economical growth of the country, which is illogical, the divided nature of the society based on region, religion, language and race. Lack of collective struggle and resistance against the policies and actions of the government due to the fear of being arrested or killed. In general the people of the country subjugated by force to stay silent in spite of the discrimination by the ruling party.
But now the level of discrimination passed its limit, the life of the Ethiopian people has become the most difficult, the unemployment rate is at the peak, poverty is at the critical point of life, freedom of expression is overpowered by TPLF. Journalists and bloggers have been arrested and thrown into jail. The opposition activists are being chased and kidnapped from the neighbouring or foreign countries and sentenced to life imprisonment, death in the name of antiterrorism proclamation of 2009. Among them Bekele Gerba, the death of engineer Tesfahun Cemada, the arrest of the former president of Gambela region, Okello, Andargachew Tsige of Ginbot 7 and many others.
The TPLF continues its war against the innocent people in the country. Arresting muslim religious leaders, filling the prison with peaceful muslims, killing of muslims in the mosque while they pray, arresting, torturing and killing of innocent muslims, while they protest for their right and then calling them terrorists, has been TPLF’s day to day activity.
Muslims make up at least half of the population of the country. So the government interferred in the religious affairs of these large population, abused their human and democratic rights. So, there is no way to have a positive feedback from these communities in the coming election.
The other big issue of the season is the Oromo people and Oromia. Every time the headache of the EPRDF is the issue of Oromo people and related ones. It has been more than 23 years since TPLF started killing Oromos and arresting them in connection with the OLF. The Oromo people are also never stopped struggling for their freedom. But recently the Government tried to pass the red line of the Oromo people by bringing the Addis Ababa master plan. It is after this plan that the Oromo students in high schools and universities protested against the government democratically. Even though, they protested against this policy based on their democratic right enshired in the constitution, the Weyanes never reacted democratically. It massacred hundreds of Oromo students in different universities and high schools in Oromia, especially mass killing committed at Ambo and Mede Welabu universities, is unforgettable. The Oromo youths are ready to die and to protect their past achievements with the Oromo blood. This problem is still remained unresolved headache for the EPRDF while the time is running into the 2015 election. So the EPRDF got a challenge to solve the Oromo people issue and to plan a fake election in the coming few months. Therefore there is no hope or no way to call it democratic election in Oromia and to plan a fake election in the coming few months.
In the past elections the government media used to give wrong information about the Oromo activists and organizations fighting for the Oroma people. It helps the government on divide rule policy and to psychological mislead . But nowadays things are changing and the current generation has direct information from Oromia media network.
As we all know the opposition parties in Ethiopia are not united at the moment and this is the only advantage the TPLF can have during this time. Whatever policy differences there might be among the opposition, they agree on the issue of democracy and rule of law. So there will not be any significant change in the coming election unless the the opposition parties create coalitions on their common goals.
Additionally to get further and unique change in the coming election, the European Union and African Union have to make balanced and fruitful efforts by putting continuous pressure on the current ruling party during the whole process of the election. They must act independently and be committed to make the electoral democratic. In general even though it is unimaginable to have a democratic election in Ethiopia, their collective effort can make a tangible difference to show the world, how dictator the ruling party is.
In general on the upcoming election of 2015 the ruling party will not have any acceptance of the total population except for those 5% of its people of TPLF. So what will be the strategy of TPLF for this fake election? What fake reasons the TPLF will fabricate to claim the victory? There are interesting questions.
TPLF will claim fake victory again, but this time the Ethiopian people shall not let it lie and stay in power. It should be the last dictatorial election and the end of the dictatorial government. It is an excellent chance to change the dictatorial ruling party to a democratic, but not with election rather with revolution. If TPLF doesn’t want to leave the power with the democratic election the only way is to remove it with revolution. No more massacres, no more torture, no more arrest, no more fleeing the country. Yes we can bring democracy with revolution not with an election in Oromia.