By Tazabi
SAUDI worried about the recent incident and also mobilization of heavy Ethiopian weaponry along ethio-eritrean border, asked ethiopia not to engage with Eritrean army along ASSAB front and Ethiopia complied.
The situation on other front’s namely Zalmbesa and Tserona and badme is very tense and both sides are mobilizing heavy weaponry and any slight miscalculation from either side could trigger a full scale war.
Many TPLF centreal committee members are opposing the move to engage eritrea in a full scale war at this time citing the fact that Eprdf government doesn’t have the required support from Ethiopians to mobilize the nation. In a strange move, Oromo and Amharas members of Eprdf are voicing support the war to get TPLF stuck between a rock and hard place. TPLF is fully aware that Eprdf is heavily infiltrated and it doesn’t consult the rest of Eprdf member parties on anything. Eprdf is eroded from within by slipper cells of G7 and OLF. If the war started now, it will be strictly a tigray vs eritrea war.
Tigrayan elites who sensed this unfortunate scenario now turning 180 degrees and advocating for war of attrition in contrast to their known agitation for TPLF to march toward Asmara!
war of attrition wouldn’t be their Forte either,Eritreans coind the war of attrition military doctrine during their 30 years war of attrition with Soviet Union supported mighty Derg army and came out as victorious! And, war of attrition, would give enough time to the mushrooming Ethiopian armed rebels to recruit and expand their activities to all corners of the country.
The June 12 2016 incident has thought TPLF not to believe it’s own propoganda that Eritrean army is weak and disarray and can’t stand Ethiopia’s offensives.
Tplf soon might attempt to restore the false hope it managed to instill on its diehard supporters that it is invicble and eritrwan army is weakened by sanction and defections by launching “moral restoring” attack and accompany it with fabricated drama of portraying eritrwan refugees in tigrayn camps as prisoners of war and so on! TPLF army is forcing Tigrayans on border area to move to safe areas and it is preparing for “lightening strike” and on the other side eritrea is solidifying it’s fortification and more likely TPLF will fail in its attempt to cone up with quick victory to prove that it is viable force.
The risk with this kind of gamble is that if it looses, it will risk of lossing it’s credibility of its handlers mainly US administration.
TPLF might try to convince Americans to support its war against Eritrea by threatening that it might reduce its contribution in Somalia in order to redeploy it’s army on Eritrea front, however if it pulled that card against US, then it might risk it’s only card that is garnering it Washington’s support for its role in a war against terrorism. TPLF will stretch thin and loose in all fronts. If US administration sensed that weakness,as usual it might start blowing wih the wind and support eritrea and Ethiopian opposition groups. For TPLF, neither a war of attrition nor a full scale war will take itself out of the quagmire it inserted itself..the oromo students protest will continue to a new level and other nations will also follow suit.
Bereket’s assessment of Eprdf is right on the money! In his latest presentation to the front’s bigwigs, bereket warned that unless Eprdf undergoes a radical reform, it will destroy itself from within….to late for radical reform. tplf is now hated from inside and Eritrea also seems poised to launch its counter attack to claim it’s territory and it’s place in horn of Africa and Redsea strategic place.
